Three destinations, three values
A solar kilowatt-hour can offset imported electricity, earn a buyback rate, or be curtailed when the site cannot use or export it. Under the 2026 WA schedule, A1 grid consumption costs 33.2621 cents per kilowatt-hour. DEBS pays 10 cents from 3pm to 9pm and 2 cents outside that window, subject to its published terms. The chart is a tariff comparison, not a household savings estimate.
The ratio creates a strong self-consumption incentive. It does not prove a battery pays back: the load profile, solar shape, equipment cost, efficiency, degradation, export limit and financing assumptions still decide that result. The Export Flexibility Dividend isolates the value between one exact Western Power fallback and ceiling, while Value Under Constraint keeps the broader system inputs visible.
A large installed base meets a finite edge
The May 2026 CER edition allocates 564,139 small-scale solar records representing 3,167.33 MW to the public SWIS extent. The same evidence system records 43,150 battery records and 933.64 MWh of usable battery energy. An ABS housing-form join leaves a screening proxy of 56,776 owner-occupied detached homes not matched to an allocated solar record. None of these counts establishes network hosting capacity or a unique-premises total.
| Evidence | Reading | What it does not prove |
|---|---|---|
| Allocated small-scale solar | 3,167.33 MW | Simultaneous export or connected-premises count |
| Allocated usable batteries | 933.64 MWh | Coordinated capacity or evening availability |
| Remaining rooftop proxy | 56,776 homes | Technical suitability or purchase intent |
The new unit of competition is flexibility
As low-value midday export grows, value shifts toward load control, storage, managed EV charging, dynamic exports and aggregation. The opportunity is not simply more hardware. It is the ability to place generation behind local demand, move it into a higher-value interval, or supply a verified network or market service.
This is why product eligibility, tariff schedules, export settings and operator evidence belong in the same decision system while retaining separate provenance. A module catalogue cannot answer a network question, and an annual generation model cannot answer whether export is permitted at 1pm on a specific feeder.
The measurements that would settle it
- Export envelopes by connection type, location and effective date.
- Interval-level import, export and curtailment outcomes.
- Battery availability and response during constrained periods.
- Tariff and buyback revisions with durable source editions.
- Whether aggregation payments exceed the customer's displaced self-consumption value and added wear.
The Export Constraint Regime Register provides the exact-class rule layer. The Export Flexibility Dividend turns the compatible WA rule into a reproducible before-cost value comparison. The SWIS DER atlas, Revenue Shape and Decision Brief then connect installed assets, operating shape and the wider market context.
What this report deliberately does not estimate
This report does not estimate the prevalence of export limits, household payback, technical rooftop suitability or VPP participation. It identifies the evidence chain required to measure those questions without substituting one proxy for another.