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Reports
Sourced reports and indices.
Evidence-first analysis across three lines: market data, the production climate, and the market structures behind energy assets. Historical record, current-state metrics, and the frameworks they support, with every figure named to its source.
+347 MW−166 MW−2,161
SWIS outlook
The 2026 WEM ESOO: A Forecast Layer for the SWIS
AEMO's ten-year SWIS planning case, kept explicitly separate from observed operations: a 347 MW forecast surplus in 2028-29, a shortfall from 2029-30, and coordinated household batteries entering the capacity model.
100%AVG 52.4%80.8% MAX
SWIS reference
SWIS Rooftop Solar Atlas, 2026
A reference edition for 246 local Western Australian energy markets: rooftop solar and battery adoption, household addressability, published network opportunities, and the operating record of an isolated grid. It makes one point plainly: SWIS is not one market.
46%TBX 1.0
Market structures
The TBx Capture Index: Every NEM Battery Against Perfect Foresight
Battery offtake contracts settle on perfect-foresight spread indices, and the gap between the index and reality has been a modelled claim until now. Computed from primary AEMO data across all 60 NEM bidirectional batteries in Q1 2026: the median full-quarter asset captured 46% of its duration-matched TBx index, the index ran 2.7x to 3.8x actual fleet energy revenue in every region, and one asset beat it.
8.7%
Production climate
State of the Solar Climate, 2026
The annual synthesis of the whole series: nine variables, each at its latest reading. The 2026 headline is a contradiction: the climate has never been more demanding (2024 was the hottest year on record) yet solar has never been winning faster, becoming the largest single renewable at 8.7% of global electricity. Solar is scaling into exactly the climate that makes reading it correctly matter most.
SUNLIGHTVALUE/KWBERLIN #3
Production climate
The Compound Trajectory: What a Kilowatt Is Actually Worth
The series' capstone: every climate variable joined to yield and tariff. Stacked and multiplied by the local price, they invert the map. Across the 23 priced markets, dim Berlin earns more per kilowatt than all but two, while sun-rich Riyadh ranks 21st and Cairo dead last. The tariff spread is 20 to 1; the sunlight spread is barely 2 to 1.
2026BASE
Scenario planning
Monocrystalline Silicon to 2030: A Scenario Model for Procurement and Investment Planning
Industry roadmaps disagree by wide margins on 2030's cell-technology mix, and revise themselves within a single year. A low/base/high scenario model, aggregated from ITRPV, CPIA, Exawatt and NREL, built for procurement and capex planning rather than a single confident forecast.
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DUBLIN 0.451
Market data
Global Residential Electricity Prices: The Demand Side of Solar Economics
Residential retail electricity prices across 92 cities and 70 countries, 2016 to 2025, read as the demand side of solar economics. A panel is worth its yield multiplied by the local price, so a subsidised tariff can outweigh strong sun: Cairo out-yields Berlin on sunlight yet returns roughly one-eleventh the annual value per kilowatt.
HAIL 7/40
Production climate
Storms and Extremes: The Risk That Is Not About Yield
This part prices whether a system survives, not how much it produces. Across 40 markets, hail, the peril that breaks PV glass, seriously threatens only Johannesburg and Sydney; extreme wind governs 13 markets, flood 11, and five face no material hazard at all. The mount spec and the insurance reserve, not the annual kilowatt-hours, are where these storms are felt.
r=−0.09
Production climate
Wind: The Free Coolant That Refunds Part of the Heat Penalty
Wind hands back part of the heat penalty by scrubbing heat off the glass. Across 40 markets mean wind runs from a dead-still 1.8 m/s in Bogota to 6.3 in Cape Town, and because it barely tracks temperature (r = -0.09), it decides which hot markets get relief. Worth 3.6% to 6.9% of output versus still air, and the humid tropics, hot and windless at once, get none.
−27%100%
Production climate
Smoke: The Solar Yield Risk the Industry Has Not Priced
Eighteen measured market-events from grid operators, fleets and peer-reviewed studies: 27% off Sydney's rooftops in a day, 13.4% off California's worst fortnight, 9.5% across Black Summer's two months. Smoke is a recurring seasonal yield factor in exactly three regions, and a forecasting problem, not a resource problem, everywhere else.
−6%100%
Production climate
Rain, Dust and Soiling: The Cleaning Your Climate Does For Free
The energy a dirty panel loses spans two orders of magnitude across 40 markets: 1.5% a year in rain-washed Berlin, 5% in Perth, a 20% lower bound in the Gulf. The deciding variable is not how much dust falls but how often rain above a few millimetres follows it, and 17 markets carry honest blanks where no credible study exists.
50%DIFFUSE 19-63%
Production climate
Beam and Diffuse: Two Kinds of Light, and Where a Tracker Pays
Total sunlight tells you how much energy arrives, not what kind. Every kilowatt-hour is part sharp beam and part scattered diffuse light, and the ratio, not the total, decides whether a tracker or a bifacial module earns its price. The diffuse share runs from 19% on the Atacama plateau to 63% in Reykjavik: read that number before quoting a tracker.
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+2.75ONI 0
Production climate
The Variable Years: Why Output Swings, and What P90 Really Means
No year delivers the quoted yield. Twenty-one years of NASA and NOAA driver data show why: El Nino and La Nina redistribute cloud across hemispheres, pushing the ocean index to a record +2.75 in 2015-16. Interannual irradiance variability runs from 2.5% in deserts to 8% in the monsoon, which is exactly what the P90 figure on a proposal is protecting you from.
+6.8%0
Production climate
Brightening and Dimming: The Sky Is Not a Constant
Two independent NASA instruments across 40 markets: 26 skies brightened over two decades and 14 dimmed, from Berlin at +6.8% to Jodhpur at -6.1%, with the instruments agreeing on direction in 29 of 40. Every percent of sky moves output almost one for one, so the trend can dwarf the warming penalty: Berlin's brightening is roughly eight times its modelled heat drift.
−9.8% AT 53°CRATED 100% · 25°C
Production climate
The Heat Penalty: What Warming Does, and Does Not Do, to Solar Yield
Panels are rated at 25°C but run at a modelled 53°C in the average market, giving up 9.8% of nameplate to heat before climate change is counted. Twenty years of NASA record put the additional 25-year warming penalty at a third of a percent on average: the heat tax is large, the drift is a decimal, and the module choice is worth several times more.
112 GW100 GW
Market data
Global Behind-the-Meter Storage: The 2025 Data
Global energy storage additions broke 100 GW for the first time, battery pack prices hit a record low, and Australia's Cheaper Home Batteries Program moved 400,000 systems in under a year. What the 2025 data says about where residential storage is heading.
LFP 95%
Technology & safety
The Lithium-Ion Residential Battery Decade: A Technology & Safety Classification
Fifteen years of chemistry selection, safety certification and battery-management evolution, read as a classification framework for specifying and evaluating residential storage today: which chemistry, which certification stack, which BMS generation.