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See when spread value arrives, how concentrated it is, and whether a project remains useful across different market regimes. NEM dollar indices sit beside clearly separated SWIS and global transition-pressure signals.
$260,093 / MW
2023, 2024, 2025 complete years
39.5%
Latest complete year
-24.7%
Latest two complete years
57 / 100
Moderate observed volatility
Monthly spread distribution
May 26
1,152 negative-price intervals
$246,702/MW
$260,093/MW
$310,426/MW
Project regime test
$12.5M
gross / year
$13.2M
gross / year
$15.7M
gross / year
Gross energy-arbitrage screen only. The selected capture ratio is applied consistently to each historical annual regime; FCAS, degradation, bidding constraints, losses and network limits remain outside this view.
| Market | P10 | P50 | P90 | Top 10 days | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Australia | $246,702 | $260,093 | $310,426 | 39.5% | 57 |
| New South Wales | $196,665 | $254,900 | $333,421 | 38.2% | 65 |
| Queensland | $200,004 | $228,963 | $295,503 | 33.8% | 55 |
| Victoria | $149,359 | $183,232 | $198,445 | 35.8% | 60 |
| Tasmania | $73,599 | $101,934 | $140,492 | 38.8% | 77 |