# Solar Analytica

> Sustainable-energy data intelligence: solar performance data aggregated from the product level up, grounded entirely in historical record with every figure named to its source. Transparency through data.

Solar Analytica is an energy-data company: evidence-first reports, indices and projections built on public records (NASA, NOAA, AEMO, Ember, retail tariffs), with every figure named to its source and, wherever the source is public, reproducible from it. Three report lines: market data, The Production Climate (a ten-part series on the environmental variables between the sun and the socket), and Market Structures (opening with the quarterly TBx Capture Index of every NEM battery against a perfect-foresight benchmark). A working reference of fault codes, explainers and calculators is also hosted here while it migrates to the sibling property wattbench. Everything is free to read, no login. Content is reviewed for currency (last site-wide review: July 2026).

## Reports and indices
Sourced, evidence-first analysis across market data, the production climate and market structures.
- [Reports hub](https://solaranalytica.com/reports): All reports and indices, three lines
- [The Value of a Kilowatt (interactive)](https://solaranalytica.com/value-of-a-kilowatt): Interactive: climate-modelled yield times local retail tariff across 28 markets, the annual grid-offset value of one installed kilowatt, sortable by value, sunlight or price
- [The Production Climate (series hub)](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-production-climate): Ten parts: heat, brightening, variability, beam and diffuse, soiling, smoke, wind, storms, the compound trajectory, and the annual state of the solar climate
- [The 2026 WEM ESOO: A Forecast Layer for the SWIS](https://solaranalytica.com/wem-esoo-2026-outlook): AEMO's ten-year SWIS planning case, kept explicitly separate from observed operations: a 347 MW forecast surplus in 2028-29, a shortfall from 2029-30, and coordinated household batteries entering the capacity model.
- [SWIS Rooftop Solar Atlas, 2026](https://solaranalytica.com/swis-rooftop-solar-atlas-2026): A reference edition for 246 local Western Australian energy markets: rooftop solar and battery adoption, household addressability, published network opportunities, and the operating record of an isolated grid. It makes one point plainly: SWIS is not one market.
- [The TBx Capture Index: Every NEM Battery Against Perfect Foresight](https://solaranalytica.com/nem-bess-capture-index): Battery offtake contracts settle on perfect-foresight spread indices, and the gap between the index and reality has been a modelled claim until now. Computed from primary AEMO data across all 60 NEM bidirectional batteries in Q1 2026: the median full-quarter asset captured 46% of its duration-matched TBx index, the index ran 2.7x to 3.8x actual fleet energy revenue in every region, and one asset beat it.
- [State of the Solar Climate, 2026](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-climate-state-2026): The annual synthesis of the whole series: nine variables, each at its latest reading. The 2026 headline is a contradiction: the climate has never been more demanding (2024 was the hottest year on record) yet solar has never been winning faster, becoming the largest single renewable at 8.7% of global electricity. Solar is scaling into exactly the climate that makes reading it correctly matter most.
- [The Compound Trajectory: What a Kilowatt Is Actually Worth](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-compound-trajectory): The series' capstone: every climate variable joined to yield and tariff. Stacked and multiplied by the local price, they invert the map. Across the 23 priced markets, dim Berlin earns more per kilowatt than all but two, while sun-rich Riyadh ranks 21st and Cairo dead last. The tariff spread is 20 to 1; the sunlight spread is barely 2 to 1.
- [Monocrystalline Silicon to 2030: A Scenario Model for Procurement and Investment Planning](https://solaranalytica.com/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning): Industry roadmaps disagree by wide margins on 2030's cell-technology mix, and revise themselves within a single year. A low/base/high scenario model, aggregated from ITRPV, CPIA, Exawatt and NREL, built for procurement and capex planning rather than a single confident forecast.
- [Global Residential Electricity Prices: The Demand Side of Solar Economics](https://solaranalytica.com/global-residential-electricity-prices): Residential retail electricity prices across 92 cities and 70 countries, 2016 to 2025, read as the demand side of solar economics. A panel is worth its yield multiplied by the local price, so a subsidised tariff can outweigh strong sun: Cairo out-yields Berlin on sunlight yet returns roughly one-eleventh the annual value per kilowatt.
- [Storms and Extremes: The Risk That Is Not About Yield](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-storm-survival): This part prices whether a system survives, not how much it produces. Across 40 markets, hail, the peril that breaks PV glass, seriously threatens only Johannesburg and Sydney; extreme wind governs 13 markets, flood 11, and five face no material hazard at all. The mount spec and the insurance reserve, not the annual kilowatt-hours, are where these storms are felt.
- [Wind: The Free Coolant That Refunds Part of the Heat Penalty](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-wind-cooling): Wind hands back part of the heat penalty by scrubbing heat off the glass. Across 40 markets mean wind runs from a dead-still 1.8 m/s in Bogota to 6.3 in Cape Town, and because it barely tracks temperature (r = -0.09), it decides which hot markets get relief. Worth 3.6% to 6.9% of output versus still air, and the humid tropics, hot and windless at once, get none.
- [Smoke: The Solar Yield Risk the Industry Has Not Priced](https://solaranalytica.com/wildfire-smoke-solar): Eighteen measured market-events from grid operators, fleets and peer-reviewed studies: 27% off Sydney's rooftops in a day, 13.4% off California's worst fortnight, 9.5% across Black Summer's two months. Smoke is a recurring seasonal yield factor in exactly three regions, and a forecasting problem, not a resource problem, everywhere else.
- [Rain, Dust and Soiling: The Cleaning Your Climate Does For Free](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-soiling): The energy a dirty panel loses spans two orders of magnitude across 40 markets: 1.5% a year in rain-washed Berlin, 5% in Perth, a 20% lower bound in the Gulf. The deciding variable is not how much dust falls but how often rain above a few millimetres follows it, and 17 markets carry honest blanks where no credible study exists.
- [Beam and Diffuse: Two Kinds of Light, and Where a Tracker Pays](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-beam-diffuse): Total sunlight tells you how much energy arrives, not what kind. Every kilowatt-hour is part sharp beam and part scattered diffuse light, and the ratio, not the total, decides whether a tracker or a bifacial module earns its price. The diffuse share runs from 19% on the Atacama plateau to 63% in Reykjavik: read that number before quoting a tracker.
- [The Variable Years: Why Output Swings, and What P90 Really Means](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-variable-years): No year delivers the quoted yield. Twenty-one years of NASA and NOAA driver data show why: El Nino and La Nina redistribute cloud across hemispheres, pushing the ocean index to a record +2.75 in 2015-16. Interannual irradiance variability runs from 2.5% in deserts to 8% in the monsoon, which is exactly what the P90 figure on a proposal is protecting you from.
- [Brightening and Dimming: The Sky Is Not a Constant](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-brightening-dimming): Two independent NASA instruments across 40 markets: 26 skies brightened over two decades and 14 dimmed, from Berlin at +6.8% to Jodhpur at -6.1%, with the instruments agreeing on direction in 29 of 40. Every percent of sky moves output almost one for one, so the trend can dwarf the warming penalty: Berlin's brightening is roughly eight times its modelled heat drift.
- [The Heat Penalty: What Warming Does, and Does Not Do, to Solar Yield](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-heat-penalty): Panels are rated at 25°C but run at a modelled 53°C in the average market, giving up 9.8% of nameplate to heat before climate change is counted. Twenty years of NASA record put the additional 25-year warming penalty at a third of a percent on average: the heat tax is large, the drift is a decimal, and the module choice is worth several times more.
- [Global Behind-the-Meter Storage: The 2025 Data](https://solaranalytica.com/global-behind-the-meter-storage-2025): Global energy storage additions broke 100 GW for the first time, battery pack prices hit a record low, and Australia's Cheaper Home Batteries Program moved 400,000 systems in under a year. What the 2025 data says about where residential storage is heading.
- [The Lithium-Ion Residential Battery Decade: A Technology & Safety Classification](https://solaranalytica.com/lithium-ion-residential-battery-decade): Fifteen years of chemistry selection, safety certification and battery-management evolution, read as a classification framework for specifying and evaluating residential storage today: which chemistry, which certification stack, which BMS generation.

## Signals and data access
- [Signals](https://solaranalytica.com/signals): Timestamped material data releases, research updates and methodology changes, each with the release, source and decision implication
- [Data catalogue](https://solaranalytica.com/data): The versioned solar, climate and market data pillars behind the research
- [Solar Intelligence Workspace](https://solaranalytica.com/intelligence): Interactive solar scenario, grid comparison, SWIS Day Explorer, local watch state and printable working brief
- [Grid Mix Monitor](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix): Compare 2025 annual generation mix, renewable share, solar share and carbon intensity across selected national electricity systems
- [Revenue Shape Monitor](https://solaranalytica.com/revenue-shape): Historical NEM TB1, TB2 and TB4 annual regimes, project capture ranges, merchant-risk concentration, SWIS flexibility pressure and global Ember transition signals
- [SWIS Observatory](https://solaranalytica.com/swis): Western Australia’s isolated-grid transition: rooftop solar, operational demand and system-security research frame
- [SWIS Daily Operating Record](https://solaranalytica.com/swis/operating-record): AEMO WEM daily operational-demand, rooftop-PV and facility-SCADA technology record for the SWIS
- [SWIS Stress Days](https://solaranalytica.com/swis/stress-days): Ranked minimum-demand, rooftop-PV and evening-ramp events from the AEMO WEM operating record
- [SWIS Operating Archetypes](https://solaranalytica.com/swis/archetypes): Transparent classification of recurring SWIS solar-surge, low-demand, evening-ramp and balanced operating states
- [Australia Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/australia): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at Canberra
- [Brazil Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/brazil): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at Brasilia
- [Denmark Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/denmark): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at Copenhagen
- [Germany Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/germany): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at Berlin
- [Spain Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/spain): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at Madrid
- [India Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/india): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at New Delhi
- [Japan Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/japan): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at Tokyo
- [South Africa Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/south-africa): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at Pretoria
- [United Kingdom Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/united-kingdom): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at London
- [United States Grid Transition](https://solaranalytica.com/grid-mix/united-states): Monthly electricity-mix transition from 2016 with NASA POWER solar-resource context at Washington, DC
- [Data access](https://solaranalytica.com/data-access): Research releases, data extracts and design-partner access for professional decision teams
- [Research access brief](https://solaranalytica.com/data-access/brief): Structured design-partner brief for a market-data decision, delivery need and release cadence
- [TBx Explorer](https://solaranalytica.com/market-structures/tbx): Filterable Q1 2026 NEM battery capture ledger with region, duration and commissioning context

## The network
- [Ecosystem](https://solaranalytica.com/ecosystem): One instrument, three altitudes: solar_analytica (market), review.solar (product), wattbench (applied), bridged by askwatt.ai (coming), an AI that answers energy questions across all three with every figure sourced
- [Methodology & Standards](https://solaranalytica.com/methodology): The data-research standards: public sources named per figure, blanks over guesses, verified before publishing

## Fault Libraries
Documented inverter and battery error/alarm codes by manufacturer.
- [Huawei Inverter Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/huawei-inverter-error-codes): Major and minor alarm codes for Huawei SUN2000 residential and commercial inverters, with plain-English causes and field-tested fixes.
- [Sungrow Alarm Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/sungrow-alarm-codes): The complete Sungrow fault reference — string, SH hybrid and battery families — with every alarm number searchable and grouped by root cause.
- [Solis Alarm Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/solis-alarm-codes): Solis (Ginlong) inverter alarm codes covering grid, insulation, temperature and hardware faults, with diagnostic next steps.
- [Growatt Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/growatt-error-codes): Growatt's dual numbered-and-named error scheme decoded — what each Error and Warning means, and whether it needs an installer.
- [GoodWe Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/goodwe-error-codes): GoodWe inverter error codes for grid, isolation, temperature and internal faults, with clear guidance on self-recovery versus service.
- [Fronius Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/fronius-error-codes): Common Fronius State codes — including the Australian Volt-Watt and Volt-VAr grid-protection states — explained for owners and installers.
- [SMA Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/sma-error-codes): Frequent SMA Sunny Boy and Tripower event codes, what triggers them, and the difference between a momentary grid event and a real fault.
- [Enphase Microinverter Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/enphase-microinverter-error-codes): Plain-English guide to the events Enphase IQ microinverters report in the app — grid, DC, temperature and reporting — and what each one means.
- [SolaX Inverter Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/solax-inverter-error-codes): Common SolaX string and hybrid inverter fault codes explained, with likely causes and what to check.
- [Deye Inverter Fault Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/deye-inverter-fault-codes): Common Deye string and hybrid inverter fault codes decoded, with plain-English causes and fixes.
- [Tesla Powerwall Alert Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/tesla-powerwall-alert-codes): What Tesla Powerwall's app alerts mean — from Breaker Open to Storm Watch — explained in plain English.
- [Sigenergy SigenStor Fault Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/sigenergy-sigenstor-fault-codes): Common SigenStor alarms (the 1000-series inverter codes) explained, with what each points to and what to check.
- [FoxESS Inverter Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/foxess-inverter-error-codes): FoxESS hybrid (H1/AC1) named alarms and R-series numeric fault codes in plain English — what each means and what to check.
- [Sofar Inverter Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/sofar-inverter-error-codes): Sofar Solar inverter ID fault codes (the ID01–ID107 range) decoded, with documented causes, fixes and a note on model-specific numbering.
- [Hoymiles Microinverter Error Codes](https://solaranalytica.com/hoymiles-microinverter-error-codes): Hoymiles microinverter alarm and event codes — grid, protection and DTU faults — explained, with what each points to and what to check.

## Explainers
Plain-English guides to the technology behind solar systems.
- [HJT Solar Technology, Explained](https://solaranalytica.com/hjt-solar-technology): How heterojunction cells fuse crystalline and thin-film silicon to push efficiency higher — and what that means for real-world yield.
- [Solar Cell Busbars & Multi-Busbar Design](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-cell-busbars): Why busbar count keeps rising — from 5BB to MBB and beyond — and how finer conductors cut resistive loss and improve reliability.
- [AC vs DC Solar Panels](https://solaranalytica.com/ac-vs-dc-solar-panels): String inverters, microinverters and DC optimisers compared — where the conversion happens and which architecture fits your roof.
- [Solar Panel Orientation & Tilt](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-panel-orientation): How azimuth and tilt shape annual yield and self-consumption — and why the textbook-optimal angle is rarely the smartest one.
- [How to Read a Solar Panel Datasheet](https://solaranalytica.com/reading-a-solar-datasheet): Decode STC vs NOCT, temperature coefficients, tolerance and degradation so you can compare modules on the numbers that matter.
- [TOPCon Solar Cells, Explained](https://solaranalytica.com/topcon-solar-cells): What TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) cells are, how the passivating contact works, and how they compare with PERC and HJT on efficiency, temperature, bifaciality, degradation and cost.
- [Bifacial Solar Panels, Explained](https://solaranalytica.com/bifacial-solar-panels): How bifacial modules capture rear-side light, what bifaciality factor and albedo mean, and why ground-mount arrays gain far more than typical rooftops.
- [LFP vs NMC: Home Battery Chemistry](https://solaranalytica.com/lfp-vs-nmc-home-batteries): A plain-English, manufacturer-neutral comparison of LFP and NMC lithium battery chemistries for home storage, covering energy density, cycle life, safety, temperature behaviour, cost, and why most new home batteries now use LFP.
- [Solar Export Limiting, Explained](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-export-limiting): What export limits are, why Australian networks apply them, the move from fixed and zero limits to dynamic exports, and how it all shapes system sizing and self-consumption.
- [Virtual Power Plants (VPP), Explained](https://solaranalytica.com/virtual-power-plants): What a virtual power plant is, how aggregated home batteries earn money providing grid services, and the real trade-offs for owners — in plain Australian English.
- [Microinverters vs String Inverters](https://solaranalytica.com/microinverters-vs-string-inverters): How microinverters and string inverters differ on shade tolerance, monitoring, redundancy, cost and roof complexity — and which suits your site.

## Tools
Transparent, in-browser solar calculators — no sign-up, nothing stored.
- [Solar System Size Calculator](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-system-size-calculator): Turn your daily energy use, sun hours and system losses into a recommended array size, panel count and inverter rating.
- [Solar Payback Calculator](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-payback-calculator): Estimate annual savings and payback period from system cost, generation, self-consumption, electricity rate and feed-in tariff.
- [Solar Panel Power Density Calculator](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-panel-density-calculator): From rated power and module dimensions, compute power density in W/m², module efficiency and panels needed per kilowatt.
- [Single or Three-Phase Power?](https://solaranalytica.com/single-or-three-phase-power): Answer a few questions about your supply and system size to see whether single or three-phase is the right fit — and why it matters for solar.
- [Solar Battery Size Calculator](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-battery-size-calculator): Size a home battery from your overnight energy use, days of autonomy, depth of discharge and round-trip efficiency.
- [Solar STC Rebate Calculator (Australia)](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-stc-rebate-calculator): Estimate the federal STC incentive on an Australian solar install from system size, your zone rating, deeming years and the STC price.
- [Solar Cable Voltage Drop Calculator](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-cable-voltage-drop-calculator): Work out voltage drop on a DC string or single-phase AC run from length, current, conductor size and material — checked against AS/NZS guidance.
- [Tilt & Orientation Yield Estimator](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-tilt-orientation-calculator): Get an indicative annual-yield figure for a roof from its direction and pitch, relative to an optimally-oriented array.
- [Solar String Sizing Calculator](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-string-sizing-calculator): Work out how many panels can go in series on a string — within the inverter's MPPT window and under the maximum system voltage — using temperature-corrected module voltages.
- [DC:AC Ratio (Inverter Load Ratio) Calculator](https://solaranalytica.com/solar-dc-ac-ratio-calculator): Check the ratio of array DC capacity to inverter AC rating — the inverter load ratio — and see whether it sits in the typical range or risks clipping.

## Reference
- [Field Guides hub](https://solaranalytica.com/field-guides): All fault libraries and explainers
- [Tools hub](https://solaranalytica.com/tools): All interactive calculators
- [Glossary](https://solaranalytica.com/glossary): Solar terms, defined
- [About](https://solaranalytica.com/about): Who we are · est. 2021
- [Contact](https://solaranalytica.com/contact): Data licensing, media, methodology and partnerships
- [Search](https://solaranalytica.com/search): Search the full library

## Optional
- [Full content](https://solaranalytica.com/llms-full.txt): Every explainer, fault code, glossary term and tool — inlined as plain text
- [Reports data (JSON)](https://solaranalytica.com/reports.json): Structured data for every report: lead, stats, takeaways, sources, figure series and download links
- [Per-report figure data](https://solaranalytica.com/reports.json): Each charted report's figure rows download at /reports/<slug>/data.csv (tidy CSV) and /reports/<slug>/data.json (with sources); links in the reports.json feed
- [TBx index reference script](https://solaranalytica.com/reproduce/nem-tbx-index.mjs): Zero-dependency Node script that recomputes the quarterly TBx index from AEMO public price CSVs and prints each value beside the published figure
- [Forecast Ledger](https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger): Dated, sourced claims about solar's future — roadmap projections, program targets and Solar Analytica's own scenario endpoints — marked overtaken/held/pending as data arrives; JSON at /forecast-ledger.json
- [Fault code data (JSON)](https://solaranalytica.com/fault-codes.json): Open data — every documented fault code, free with attribution
- [RSS feed](https://solaranalytica.com/feed.xml): New signals, reports, guides and tools
- [Sitemap](https://solaranalytica.com/sitemap.xml): XML index of every page
- [AI usage policy](https://solaranalytica.com/ai.txt): How AI assistants may use this content
- [review.solar](https://solaranalytica.comhttps://review.solar): Sister site — product scorecards for panels, batteries and inverters