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The industry publishes confident numbers for 2030 and quietly revises them. This ledger holds those claims — roadmap projections, program targets, and our own scenario endpoints — dated, sourced, and marked in public when the data arrives. Ours are on it by the same standard as everyone else's.
Projections observed data has already overtaken, as documented in the report that marked them. Several are figures we would otherwise have relied on — which is the point of writing them down.
N-type mono-Si wafer share, reported at 70% for 2024, climbs to the low-80s only over a multi-year path.
Marked 2026-06-11 · The newest industry roadmap put the 2025 figure at approximately 82% — a twelve-point jump inside twelve months, already ahead of most 2024-vintage roadmaps' full multi-year path to that level (ITRPV 17th edition, June 2026; TaiyangNews comparative analysis).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosHeterojunction (HJT) to reach 20% of the 2030 technology mix.
Marked 2026-06-11 · CPIA cut its own 2030 HJT forecast from 20% to 7.5% within about a year, alongside real financial distress at Meyer Burger and a continued shift of investment toward back-contact and tandem.
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosBack-contact long-run share as published in the prior edition.
Marked 2026-06-11 · ITRPV revised its own back-contact long-run share upward in its most recent edition.
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosBack-contact capacity builds toward 2030 on the conservative trajectory.
Marked 2026-06-11 · Committed and built back-contact capacity from LONGi and Aiko Solar alone already exceeds 100 GW, running ahead of the more conservative roadmap trajectories.
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosPerovskite-silicon tandem lab efficiency above 34% expected only in the early 2030s.
Marked 2026-06-11 · Lab efficiency records ran above 34% by 2026, well ahead of most roadmaps' expectations for the early 2030s. Commercial share is a separate question: every scenario keeps commercial tandem under 5% through 2030.
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosClaims the data has not yet settled — including every endpoint of our own 2030 scenario model. They stay here, at their published values, until it does.
TOPCon shipment share in 2030: 50% low / 60% base / 70% high (65% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosBack-contact (BC/XBC) shipment share in 2030: 15% low / 23% base / 35% high (7% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosHJT/SHJ shipment share in 2030: 3% low / 8% base / 15% high (4.5% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosPerovskite-silicon tandem shipment share in 2030: 0.5% low / 2% base / 5% high (0.3% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosCommercial module efficiency, weighted average, in 2030: 24.0% low / 25.0% base / 26.0% high (23.5% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosUtility flagship module power in 2030: 750 Wp low / 800 Wp base / 900 Wp high (770 Wp in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosGlobal module ASP, ex-tariff, in 2030: US$0.06/Wp low / US$0.08/Wp base / US$0.10/Wp high (US$0.09/Wp in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosLegacy NMC-chemistry fleet risk continues generating incident and remediation activity through at least 2026–2027.
Documented in: Li-Ion Battery DecadeGlobal storage additions rise a further 41% in 2026, to 158 GW / 459 GWh (from a measured 112 GW / 307 GWh in 2025).
Documented in: BTM Storage 2025Annual storage additions reach 308 GW by 2036 — a trajectory implying roughly 2.9 TW / 10.5 TWh of cumulative global capacity.
Documented in: BTM Storage 2025Customer-sited (behind-the-meter) storage grows to approximately 25% of all global installations by 2030, from about 15% today.
Documented in: BTM Storage 2025More than 2 million households install a battery by 2030 for an estimated 40 GWh of additional capacity, under the program's $7.2 billion December 2025 expansion.
Documented in: BTM Storage 2025LFP holds approximately 95% of the stationary storage market from 2026.
Documented in: Li-Ion Battery DecadeNMC declines to roughly 1% of stationary storage share by 2030.
Documented in: Li-Ion Battery Decade47% of rooftop-solar-suitable NEM dwellings have rooftop solar by 2035, rising to 56% in 2050, when rooftop and small-scale solar capacity would be 87 GW (from 20 GW at over 36% of suitable dwellings today). (p. 40)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
Utility-scale solar and wind capacity rises from about 23 GW today to 61 GW by 2030, 80 GW by 2035 and approximately 117 GW by 2050. (p. 78)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
64 GW / 640 GWh of dispatchable storage in the NEM by 2050. (p. 30)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
Small-scale batteries grow from 5 GW / 12 GWh in April 2026 to 12 GW / 33 GWh in 2030, and then 35 GW / 78 GWh in 2050. (p. 41)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
Most of the NEM's remaining coal fleet withdraws by 2038, with all to withdraw by 2049. (p. 6; section 5.2 phrases the same path as nearly two thirds retiring by 2035, all by 2050)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
Renewable energy achieves the 82% national target by 2030 and delivers 98% by 2050. (p. 6)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)