{
  "slug": "solar-compound-trajectory",
  "title": "The Compound Trajectory: What a Kilowatt Is Actually Worth",
  "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/solar-compound-trajectory",
  "summary": "The series' capstone: every climate variable joined to yield and tariff. Stacked and multiplied by the local price, they invert the map. Across the 23 priced markets, dim Berlin earns more per kilowatt than all but two, while sun-rich Riyadh ranks 21st and Cairo dead last. The tariff spread is 20 to 1; the sunlight spread is barely 2 to 1.",
  "license": "Free to use with attribution to Solar Analytica (solaranalytica.com). Underlying figures are named to their public sources below.",
  "csv": "https://solaranalytica.com/reports/solar-compound-trajectory/data.csv",
  "datePublished": "2026-06-18",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-06-18",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Solar Analytica: The Heat Penalty (part 01)",
      "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/solar-heat-penalty"
    },
    {
      "title": "Solar Analytica: Brightening and Dimming (part 02)",
      "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/solar-brightening-dimming"
    },
    {
      "title": "Solar Analytica: Rain, Dust and Soiling (part 05)",
      "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/solar-soiling"
    },
    {
      "title": "Solar Analytica: Wind Cooling (part 07)",
      "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/solar-wind-cooling"
    },
    {
      "title": "Solar Analytica: Global Residential Electricity Prices (the demand side)",
      "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/global-residential-electricity-prices"
    },
    {
      "title": "NASA CERES / MERRA-2 (yield model inputs)",
      "url": "https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/"
    }
  ],
  "figures": [
    {
      "id": "value-per-kilowatt",
      "title": "What a kilowatt is worth. Gross annual value, USD per kW, 2025 tariffs",
      "unit": "US$ per kW per year",
      "caption": "What a kilowatt actually earns: net annual generation x local 2025 tariff, US$ per kW per year. Dim Berlin ranks third; sun-rich Cairo ranks last. The prefix is dollars. 23 of 40 markets have a matched 2025 tariff.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "Los Angeles",
          "value": 514
        },
        {
          "label": "Madrid",
          "value": 471
        },
        {
          "label": "Berlin",
          "value": 442
        },
        {
          "label": "Athens",
          "value": 403
        },
        {
          "label": "Nairobi",
          "value": 369
        },
        {
          "label": "Perth",
          "value": 357
        },
        {
          "label": "Sydney",
          "value": 333
        },
        {
          "label": "Phoenix",
          "value": 252
        },
        {
          "label": "Cape Town",
          "value": 216
        },
        {
          "label": "Dubai",
          "value": 129
        },
        {
          "label": "Riyadh",
          "value": 75
        },
        {
          "label": "Cairo",
          "value": 40
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "sun-rank-vs-value-rank",
      "title": "The reshuffle. Where the sun ranks a market vs where the money ranks it",
      "unit": "rank, 1 = best",
      "valueLabel": "Rank by sunshine",
      "valueBLabel": "Rank by value",
      "caption": "The map of the sun is not the map of the money: each market's rank by yield (grey) against its rank by annual value (blue), 1 = best. Berlin climbs 19 places; Riyadh falls 20. The lines are the compound climate-and-tariff reshuffle.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "Berlin",
          "value": 22,
          "valueB": 3
        },
        {
          "label": "Paris",
          "value": 20,
          "valueB": 8
        },
        {
          "label": "Madrid",
          "value": 13,
          "valueB": 2
        },
        {
          "label": "Stockholm",
          "value": 21,
          "valueB": 10
        },
        {
          "label": "Helsinki",
          "value": 23,
          "valueB": 13
        },
        {
          "label": "Phoenix",
          "value": 5,
          "valueB": 12
        },
        {
          "label": "Cape Town",
          "value": 4,
          "valueB": 14
        },
        {
          "label": "Cairo",
          "value": 6,
          "valueB": 23
        },
        {
          "label": "Riyadh",
          "value": 1,
          "valueB": 21
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}