{
  "slug": "nem-solar-value-factor-2019-2025",
  "title": "Utility Solar Fell From Near the Average Price to a Deep Discount in Six Years",
  "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/nem-solar-value-factor-2019-2025",
  "summary": "The value factor of NEM utility-scale solar, computed from AEMO's five-minute record: between 0.78 and 1.06 of the average wholesale price in 2019, between 0.28 and 0.53 in 2025. In Queensland, 49.5 per cent of 2025 utility solar output was generated at a negative price. Reconciled to AEMO's own published figures; wholesale system value, not project revenue.",
  "license": "Free to use with attribution to Solar Analytica (solaranalytica.com). Underlying figures are named to their public sources below.",
  "csv": "https://solaranalytica.com/reports/nem-solar-value-factor-2019-2025/data.csv",
  "datePublished": "2026-10-01",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-10-20",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "AEMO: MMSDM monthly data archive (DISPATCHPRICE, DISPATCH_UNIT_SCADA, GENUNITS, DUALLOC, DUDETAILSUMMARY), January 2019 to December 2025",
      "url": "https://nemweb.com.au/Data_Archive/Wholesale_Electricity/MMSDM/"
    },
    {
      "title": "AEMO: Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2025, sections 2.2.3, 2.2.5 and 2.3.4",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2025/qed-q4-2025.pdf"
    },
    {
      "title": "AEMO: Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2020, section 1.4",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2020/qed-q4-2020.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "figures": [
    {
      "id": "nem-solar-value-factor-2019-2025",
      "title": "Utility solar value factor by NEM region, 2019 and 2025",
      "unit": "ratio (solar output-weighted price over time-weighted average price)",
      "valueLabel": "2019",
      "valueBLabel": "2025",
      "caption": "Solar output-weighted regional price divided by the time-weighted average price, each calendar year, utility-scale solar only. Two annual readings per region, not a trend line. Computed by Solar Analytica from AEMO MMSDM five-minute dispatch prices and unit output.",
      "provenance": {
        "dataSource": "AEMO MMSDM DISPATCHPRICE and DISPATCH_UNIT_SCADA, with registration tables",
        "dataType": "Computed index from observed five-minute prices and unit output",
        "scope": "NEM utility-scale solar, NSW, Qld, SA, Vic, calendar years"
      },
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "NSW",
          "value": 0.927,
          "valueB": 0.43
        },
        {
          "label": "Qld",
          "value": 0.782,
          "valueB": 0.281
        },
        {
          "label": "SA",
          "value": 0.996,
          "valueB": 0.531
        },
        {
          "label": "Vic",
          "value": 1.064,
          "valueB": 0.338
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nem-solar-value-factor-by-year-2019-2025",
      "title": "Utility solar value factor by NEM region, every year 2019 to 2025",
      "unit": "ratio (solar output-weighted price over time-weighted average price)",
      "valueLabel": "2019",
      "metricLabels": {
        "y2020": "2020",
        "y2021": "2021",
        "y2022": "2022",
        "y2023": "2023",
        "y2024": "2024",
        "y2025": "2025"
      },
      "caption": "Solar output-weighted regional price divided by the time-weighted average price, every calendar year, utility-scale solar only. Computed by Solar Analytica from AEMO MMSDM five-minute dispatch prices and unit output.",
      "provenance": {
        "dataSource": "AEMO MMSDM DISPATCHPRICE and DISPATCH_UNIT_SCADA, with registration tables",
        "dataType": "Computed index from observed five-minute prices and unit output",
        "scope": "NEM utility-scale solar, NSW, Qld, SA, Vic, calendar years"
      },
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "NSW",
          "value": 0.927,
          "y2020": 1.086,
          "y2021": 0.606,
          "y2022": 0.61,
          "y2023": 0.568,
          "y2024": 0.55,
          "y2025": 0.43
        },
        {
          "label": "Qld",
          "value": 0.782,
          "y2020": 0.799,
          "y2021": 0.566,
          "y2022": 0.518,
          "y2023": 0.364,
          "y2024": 0.363,
          "y2025": 0.281
        },
        {
          "label": "SA",
          "value": 0.996,
          "y2020": 0.749,
          "y2021": 0.426,
          "y2022": 0.496,
          "y2023": 0.366,
          "y2024": 0.435,
          "y2025": 0.531
        },
        {
          "label": "Vic",
          "value": 1.064,
          "y2020": 0.887,
          "y2021": 0.434,
          "y2022": 0.572,
          "y2023": 0.37,
          "y2024": 0.372,
          "y2025": 0.338
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}