{"schemaVersion":"report-figure-v1","report":{"slug":"nem-bess-capture-index","title":"The TBx Capture Index: Every NEM Battery Against Perfect Foresight","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/nem-bess-capture-index","datePublished":"2026-07-08","lastReviewed":"2026-07-22"},"figure":{"id":"duration-matched-capture","title":"Duration-matched capture per asset, Q1 2026, every full-quarter unit","unit":"capture ratio (actual energy-only revenue / duration-matched TBx index)","caption":"The foresight gap, asset by asset: actual energy-only revenue as a share of the duration-matched perfect-foresight TBx index, Q1 2026, one dot for each full-quarter unit, of any size. Two of the 40 full-quarter units beat their index. The median across all 40 full-quarter units is 0.45. Selected units tabled below; per-asset dataset public. Corrected on 9 October 2026: the median was first printed as 0.46, the 21st of the 40 full-quarter values; the median of 40 is 0.448, the mean of the 20th and 21st. Two units, not one, beat their index; the second, CBWWBA1, is a 2 MW unit below this figure's 25 MW floor. The regional range in the figure above now includes South Australia at 3.9x. No other value changed. Redrawn on 20 October 2026 to show every full-quarter unit, so the 25 MW floor that note refers to no longer applies.","series":[{"label":"ADPBA1","value":0.615},{"label":"BALB1","value":0.284},{"label":"BBATTERY1","value":0.64},{"label":"BHB1","value":0.337},{"label":"BLYTHB1","value":0.665},{"label":"BOWWBA1","value":0.757},{"label":"BRNDBES1","value":0.683},{"label":"CAPBES1","value":0.346},{"label":"CBWWBA1","value":1.027},{"label":"CHBESS1","value":0.575},{"label":"DALNTH1","value":0.137},{"label":"DPNTB1","value":0.41},{"label":"ERB01","value":0.46},{"label":"GANNB1","value":0.226},{"label":"GREENB1","value":0.38},{"label":"HBESS1","value":0.344},{"label":"HPR1","value":0.435},{"label":"HVWWBA1","value":0.638},{"label":"KESSB1","value":0.534},{"label":"LBB1","value":0.269},{"label":"MANNUMB1","value":0.466},{"label":"MREHA1","value":0.552},{"label":"MREHA2","value":0.563},{"label":"MREHA3","value":0.624},{"label":"PIBESS1","value":0.295},{"label":"RANGEB1","value":0.436},{"label":"RESS1","value":0.411},{"label":"RIVNB2","value":0.415},{"label":"SMTHBES1","value":0.498},{"label":"SNB01","value":0.336},{"label":"TARBESS1","value":0.369},{"label":"TB2B1","value":0.388},{"label":"TEMPB1","value":0.596},{"label":"TIB1","value":0.544},{"label":"ULPBESS1","value":0.395},{"label":"VBB1","value":0.233},{"label":"WALGRV1","value":0.364},{"label":"WANDB1","value":0.553},{"label":"WDBESS1","value":1.034},{"label":"WDBESS2","value":0.558}]},"csv":"https://solaranalytica.com/reports/nem-bess-capture-index/figures/duration-matched-capture/data.csv","publicationState":"fixed-edition","boundary":"The figure remains bound to the report edition. A newer upstream release creates a review obligation and never rewrites these rows automatically."}