{"frameworkVersion":"projective-layers-v1","publishedOn":"2026-07-31","lastReviewed":"2026-07-31","title":"Projective Layers","description":"A versioned framework that keeps observed records, published outlooks, Solar Analytica scenario ranges, review triggers and later outcomes separate.","methodology":{"promise":"Preserve what was known, show what was assumed, watch what changes, and later compare the projection with what happened.","rangeLabel":"Conditional scenario range, not a probability or confidence interval.","referenceLabel":"The reference case is an analytical planning case, not a most-likely forecast.","revisionRule":"A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites the published layer automatically.","accountabilityRule":"Observed outcomes are appended when a like-for-like authoritative release exists. The original projection remains frozen.","layers":[{"key":"observed","label":"Observed record","question":"What had happened by the evidence cut-off?","rule":"Measured or officially estimated values retain their source vintage and revision status."},{"key":"outlooks","label":"Published outlooks","question":"What did named sources say could happen?","rule":"Forecasts, projections, scenarios and targets keep the classification used by their publisher."},{"key":"envelope","label":"Scenario envelope","question":"Which conditional planning range does the evidence support?","rule":"Lower, reference and upper paths remain explicit; the range is not assigned a probability."},{"key":"triggers","label":"Review triggers","question":"What new evidence would make this view worth reopening?","rule":"Triggers are declared before publication and cause review rather than automatic replacement."},{"key":"accountability","label":"Outcome and marking","question":"What happened when the horizon became observable?","rule":"Like-for-like actuals are appended and the result is marked inside, above or below the original envelope."}],"sources":[{"title":"AER Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines, June 2026","url":"https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/2026-06/AER%20-%20Forecasting%20best%20practice%20guidelines%20-%205%20June%202026.pdf","role":"Inputs, assumptions, methodology disclosure and post-period performance review."},{"title":"Australian Government National Climate Scenario Guidance","url":"https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-climate-scenarios-guidance.pdf","role":"Scenario transparency, uncertainty, trigger points and adaptive review."},{"title":"AEMO Forecasting Accuracy Reporting","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/forecasting-accuracy-reporting","role":"Public comparison of forecast components with later observations."}]},"profiles":[{"id":"mono-si-technology-mix-2030","title":"Monocrystalline silicon technology transition","shortTitle":"Cell technology to 2030","scope":"Global mono-Si module technology","domain":"technology-assets","evidenceCutoff":"2026-06-25","publishedOn":"2026-07-31","baselinePeriod":"2025","horizonPeriod":"2030","accountabilityDue":"2031-06-30","accountabilityStatus":"not-yet-assessable","evidenceStrength":"Moderate","sourceReport":{"title":"Monocrystalline Silicon to 2030: A Scenario Model for Procurement and Investment Planning","href":"/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning","publishedOn":"2026-06-11","lastReviewed":"2026-06-25","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning"},"layerAvailability":{"observed":"available","outlooks":"available-in-source-report","envelope":"available","triggers":"available","accountability":"not-yet-assessable"},"constructionMethod":"The lower, reference and upper endpoints are named published roadmap positions selected in the source report. They are not averaged midpoints and do not carry assigned probabilities.","planningRead":"The useful information is the spread and its revision risk. Any multi-year decision should carry a review clause rather than depend on one precise 2030 number.","boundaries":["Global scope; jurisdiction-specific tariffs, trade barriers and freight sit outside the layer.","Commercial shipment share is separate from laboratory efficiency records and product bankability.","Only the 2025 baseline and 2030 endpoints are asserted; the page does not invent an annual path between them.","The envelope is a conditional scenario range, not a statistical confidence interval."],"triggers":[{"key":"roadmap-edition","label":"A new roadmap vintage","cadence":"On publication","test":"Reopen the layer when a named source materially revises a 2030 endpoint or its underlying classification."},{"key":"shipment-mix","label":"A new measured shipment mix","cadence":"Annual","test":"Compare the new observed technology shares with the frozen 2025 baseline and the direction implied by the envelope."},{"key":"manufacturing-capacity","label":"Material committed capacity","cadence":"Event-driven","test":"Review when committed or operating capacity changes the factory-scale evidence behind a technology path."},{"key":"commercial-availability","label":"Commercial shipment evidence","cadence":"Event-driven","test":"Keep laboratory records separate; review only when commercial product ships at material scale."}],"metrics":[{"key":"topcon-share","title":"TOPCon shipment share","shortTitle":"TOPCon","unit":"%","decimals":0,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":65,"lower":50,"reference":60,"upper":70,"axis":{"min":40,"max":80,"ticks":[40,50,60,70,80]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-topcon","read":"Every published case keeps TOPCon above half of shipments in 2030; the uncertainty is how much share it gives back to later architectures.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-topcon"},{"key":"back-contact-share","title":"Back-contact shipment share","shortTitle":"Back-contact","unit":"%","decimals":0,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":7,"lower":15,"reference":23,"upper":35,"axis":{"min":0,"max":40,"ticks":[0,10,20,30,40]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-back-contact","read":"Back-contact carries the widest source spread in the model, making its range more useful than its reference point alone.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-back-contact"},{"key":"hjt-share","title":"HJT / SHJ shipment share","shortTitle":"HJT / SHJ","unit":"%","decimals":1,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":4.5,"lower":3,"reference":8,"upper":15,"axis":{"min":0,"max":20,"ticks":[0,5,10,15,20]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-hjt","read":"The wide envelope reflects roadmap revision risk rather than uncertainty about the underlying cell physics.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-hjt"},{"key":"tandem-share","title":"Perovskite-silicon tandem shipment share","shortTitle":"Tandem","unit":"%","decimals":1,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":0.3,"lower":0.5,"reference":2,"upper":5,"axis":{"min":0,"max":6,"ticks":[0,1.5,3,4.5,6]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-tandem","read":"Commercial share stays below five per cent across the source positions even while laboratory records move much faster.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-tandem"},{"key":"module-efficiency","title":"Commercial module efficiency, weighted average","shortTitle":"Module efficiency","unit":"%","decimals":1,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":23.5,"lower":24,"reference":25,"upper":26,"axis":{"min":22,"max":27,"ticks":[22,23,24,25,26,27]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-module-efficiency","read":"The range is a planning boundary for land and roof-area assumptions, not a promise about a particular supplier.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-module-efficiency"},{"key":"flagship-power","title":"Utility flagship module power","shortTitle":"Flagship power","unit":"Wp","decimals":0,"prefix":"","suffix":" Wp","baseline":770,"lower":750,"reference":800,"upper":900,"axis":{"min":700,"max":950,"ticks":[700,750,800,850,900,950]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-flagship-power","read":"High-case module power should remain contingency, not the default capacity-per-hectare assumption.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-flagship-power"},{"key":"module-asp","title":"Global module ASP, ex-tariff","shortTitle":"Module ASP","unit":"US$/Wp","decimals":2,"prefix":"US$","suffix":"/Wp","baseline":0.09,"lower":0.06,"reference":0.08,"upper":0.1,"axis":{"min":0.04,"max":0.12,"ticks":[0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-module-asp","read":"The global range excludes jurisdiction-specific trade barriers, freight and local delivered-cost premiums.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-module-asp"}]},{"id":"wa-swis-distributed-assets-2030","title":"WA / SWIS distributed-energy transition","shortTitle":"WA distributed assets to 2030","scope":"Public SWIS extent, Western Australia","domain":"grid-delivery","evidenceCutoff":"2026-07-31","publishedOn":"2026-07-31","baselinePeriod":"May 2026","horizonPeriod":"2030","accountabilityDue":"2031-07-31","accountabilityStatus":"not-yet-assessable","evidenceStrength":"Limited","sourceReport":{"title":"WA / SWIS Distributed Energy to 2030: A Conditional Planning Range","href":"/wa-swis-distributed-energy-2030","publishedOn":"2026-07-31","lastReviewed":"2026-07-31","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/wa-swis-distributed-energy-2030"},"layerAvailability":{"observed":"available","outlooks":"available-in-source-report","envelope":"available","triggers":"available","accountability":"not-yet-assessable"},"constructionMethod":"The May 2026 CER allocation is frozen as the observed baseline. The solar envelope applies explicit annual net-addition corridors through December 2030; battery endpoints are conditional adoption stress cases because the comparable public battery series begins only in July 2025. No endpoint is assigned a probability.","planningRead":"Use the range to test network, orchestration and market-service decisions across materially different distributed-asset states. Do not substitute the endpoints into an AEMO model or read certificate records as unique connected premises.","boundaries":["The geography is the public SWIS allocation used by the Solar Analytica atlas, not every Western Australian electricity connection.","CER certificate records are not unique premises and the latest installation cohorts remain incomplete.","The public battery history begins in July 2025, so the battery envelope is a stress-test range rather than a statistical extrapolation.","Installed battery energy is separate from coordinated capacity, peak-demand reduction and market-service availability.","The envelope is a conditional scenario range, not an AEMO forecast, probability distribution or confidence interval."],"triggers":[{"key":"mature-solar-run-rate","label":"A complete new CER solar year","cadence":"Annual","test":"Reopen when a mature twelve-month net capacity addition falls outside the 160-360 MW annual corridor."},{"key":"battery-history","label":"Twelve more comparable battery months","cadence":"Annual","test":"Review the battery envelope after a further complete year of postcode installation and usable-capacity records."},{"key":"vpp-availability","label":"Material VPP participation evidence","cadence":"On authoritative release","test":"Review when observed coordinated capacity or peak availability materially changes the operational interpretation of installed storage."},{"key":"network-access","label":"Network access or orchestration reform","cadence":"Event-driven","test":"Review when a rule or program materially changes export access, dynamic operating envelopes or orchestration eligibility."}],"metrics":[{"key":"allocated-solar-capacity","title":"Allocated small-scale solar capacity","shortTitle":"Solar capacity","unit":"GW","decimals":1,"prefix":"","suffix":" GW","baseline":3.167,"lower":3.9,"reference":4.4,"upper":4.8,"axis":{"min":3,"max":5,"ticks":[3,3.5,4,4.5,5]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-wa-swis-2030-solar-capacity","read":"The envelope tests whether delivery and network programs remain useful across annual net additions from approximately 160 MW to 360 MW.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-wa-swis-2030-solar-capacity"},{"key":"battery-records","title":"Battery installation records","shortTitle":"Battery records","unit":"records","decimals":0,"prefix":"","suffix":"","baseline":43150,"lower":120000,"reference":250000,"upper":420000,"axis":{"min":0,"max":450000,"ticks":[0,100000,200000,300000,400000]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-wa-swis-2030-battery-records","read":"The wide range reflects the short comparable source history and the sensitivity of uptake to program, tariff and orchestration conditions.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-wa-swis-2030-battery-records"},{"key":"battery-usable-energy","title":"Allocated usable battery energy","shortTitle":"Battery energy","unit":"GWh","decimals":1,"prefix":"","suffix":" GWh","baseline":0.934,"lower":3.2,"reference":5.5,"upper":9.2,"axis":{"min":0,"max":10,"ticks":[0,2,4,6,8,10]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-wa-swis-2030-battery-energy","read":"Installed energy alone does not establish coordinated or peak-available capacity; that operational step remains a separate evidence layer.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-wa-swis-2030-battery-energy"},{"key":"battery-reference-scale","title":"Battery records per 100 frozen May-2026 solar records","shortTitle":"Battery reference scale","unit":"per 100","decimals":0,"prefix":"","suffix":"","baseline":7.6,"lower":21,"reference":44,"upper":74,"axis":{"min":0,"max":80,"ticks":[0,20,40,60,80]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-wa-swis-2030-battery-reference-scale","read":"This frozen-denominator scale makes the storage cases comparable with the current solar base; it is not a household attachment-rate forecast.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-wa-swis-2030-battery-reference-scale"}]}],"homepage":"https://solaranalytica.com/projective-layers","license":"Free to use with attribution to Solar Analytica. Third-party outlooks remain the work of their named publishers."}